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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still