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Initially, the former US president seemed to embrace a firm stance concerning Ukraine. Following delivering warnings of "severe repercussions" during the summer if Vladimir Putin continued blocking peace discussions, Trump finally imposed major penalties on the Russian biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously affected Putin's capability to support his aggression in the region.

However, with his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' representatives without Ukrainian or European input, he has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's initiative would in practice reward the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite bold proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the proposal in reality compromise that essential autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate past, the former president seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a simple land disagreement, implying handing Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a destroyed swath of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to destroy it so it no longer serves as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Concessions

While keeping in position the already separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would force Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unable to occupy in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian defenses severely weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that represent a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, leaving Russian forces a open way to Kyiv should he eventually opt to renew the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would enable additional fighting easier for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the size of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Significantly, the initiative imposes no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's democratically elected government as radicals, Trump's plan states: "Any Nazi doctrine and actions must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to highlight this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting elections in his own country.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the initiative has Russia commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has breached comparable treaties in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for surrendering its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied areas in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone have confidence in this commitment this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international protection assurances. Although the proposal promises a "decisive coordinated armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars range from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not just prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from deploying military personnel on the nation's land, effectively preventing the security presence, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Russia from restoring his weakened military, restocking, and attacking again.

International Reaction

A separate parallel deal reportedly would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "serious, intentional, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a strong national defense – Ukraine's best protection against additional hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of Western powers, including Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not