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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd